The current recession is both deeper and longer than previous economic downturns. It is likely to affect all regions and all industrial sectors of the UK. Highly skilled, as well as lower skilled workers are likely to suffer equally. Despite this gloomy outlook, Creative & Cultural Skills most recent research suggests that, although not unaffected, creative and cultural businesses are well placed to succeed, post recession.

Over the past 20 years, the creative and cultural industries have grown (in employment terms) by an average of 4.2% p.a. This is over four and a half times the rate of employment growth experienced across all industries during the same period (i).

Evidence from the most recent recession affecting the UK (in the early nineties) highlights the durability and growth potential of the sector. Between 1991 and 1995 creative and cultural employment grew by an average of 11% p.a., compared to, for example, manufacturing, which declined by 1% p.a (ii). The manufacturing sector has struggled to recover ever since.

In the direct period before the current downturn (2004-2006) employment in the industries grew by 4.5% p.a(iii). This growth has now slowed with latest figures suggesting that growth for the period between 2007-2008 is down to 1.5% p.a. for those years. However, this compares favourably against industries such as business services (which show a decline in growth of 1.6% p.a.) and financial intermediation (a decline of 0.6% p.a.) (iv).

Significantly, the projected figures for 2009 suggest that the creative and cultural industries are growing in employment terms by nearly 5%, back to pre-recession levels (compared to negative growth across the UK in general) (v). Moving further into the future, up until 2017, employment in the industry is projected to grow significantly, perhaps by as many as 150,000 more people, the majority of which are likely to be in managerial, professional and highly skilled occupations (vi).

The creative and cultural industries would seem to be positioned to do well post recession, but it is important that we don’t take anything for granted. With employment growth in higher skilled jobs and with the UK economy moving increasingly toward a knowledge economy it is essential that a strong, sectoral understanding of skills is achieved.

Do you have an opinion on this? Do you have evidence (quantitative or anecdotal) that either supports or contradicts these findings? Let us know what you think.

Footnotes
(i) Creative & Cultural Skills Impact and Footprint – 2008/2009
(ii) Creative & Cultural Skills/TBR: An Assessment of the Creative and Cultural Industries in Periods of Economic Instability: Past Experience and Future Trends - 2009
(iii) Creative & Cultural Skills Impact and Footprint – 2008/2009
(iv) Creative & Cultural Skills/TBR: An Assessment of the Creative and Cultural Industries in Periods of Economic Instability: Past Experience and Future Trends - 2009
(v) Ibid
(vi) Working Futures 2007 – 2017, UK Commission for Employment and Skills – 2009